Fine rice now costs 30% more: a welfare scheme and El Nino fears squeeze the poor

The poor are paying more for their plate of rice, and the squeeze is only getting worse. Prices of fine rice varieties have risen by 20 to 30 per cent in recent months, with popular varieties now retailing at Rs 60 to Rs 70 a kg, according to market reports from the Telugu states. Wholesale prices have climbed by roughly Rs 1,000 a quintal. The RNR and BPT varieties, which sold at about Rs 2,400 a quintal earlier, now cost Rs 3,300 and Rs 3,000 a quintal respectively. The Jaisriram variety has touched Rs 4,500 a quintal. For families that buy in the open market, the staple has quietly become a luxury. The rise is gradual, which makes it more dangerous. "The price rise is not rapid, but has been witnessed gradually in the past two or three months," Md Saleem, a farmer-cum-trader in Gudur of Mahbubabad district, told Deccan Chronicle. Two forces are colliding. The first is the Telangana government's flagship Sanna Biyyam scheme, which supplies fine rice at Rs 1 a kg to nearly 3.2 crore ration-card holders. To feed it, the state procures close to half of Telangana's total paddy production each season, 70.82 lakh metric tonnes out of 148.03 LMT in the 2025-26 kharif season, offering farmers an attractive Rs 500 bonus over the support price. Most farmers now prefer to sell to the government, starving the open market of supply. The second is the fear of El Nino affecting the next crop. Supply is also thinning at the source. The area under paddy cultivation in Telangana fell by 15.84 per cent this kharif, from 67.24 lakh acres last year to 56.6 lakh acres. Tamil Nadu, which already imports 15 to 16 lakh metric tonnes of rice from Karnataka and Andhra Pradesh to meet its 91 lakh metric tonne annual demand, is feeling the pinch too. The price of high-quality rice arriving from the two states has gone up by Rs 2 to Rs 4 a kg. "In retail, one kg of sona rice is sold at Rs 44 to Rs 46," trader R. Srinivasan of Sevvaipettai, Salem, said. The TN Wholesale Rice Traders Association confirms the rise, small but real. Here is the uncomfortable truth governments avoid: a welfare scheme meant to protect the poor is pushing up prices for the poor who fall outside its net, those without ration cards, migrants, and daily-wage earners who buy rice a kilo at a time. The state feeds 3.2 crore people cheap rice while the market quietly charges the rest. With Tamil Nadu's own harvest due only in November, traders expect prices to climb further. The question is not whether the rise is gradual, it is who can absorb it. The answer is that the poorest cannot.