Brazil votes today: Lula's lead over Flávio Bolsonaro narrows as runoff looks unavoidable

Brazilians vote on Sunday in the first round of a presidential election that pollsters agree on only one thing about: it will almost certainly go to a runoff on October 25. The incumbent, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, leads Senator Flávio Bolsonaro — the eldest son of former president Jair Bolsonaro — but the gap has narrowed in the campaign's final days. The CNT/MDA poll released on Saturday put Lula at 43.1 per cent of first-round voting intentions against 38 per cent for Flávio Bolsonaro, with Augusto Cury at 3.2 per cent, Ronaldo Caiado at 3 per cent and Renan Santos at 1.5 per cent. The survey questioned 2,007 people between September 30 and October 2 and carries a margin of error of 2.2 percentage points. Counting only valid votes, Lula reached 47.8 per cent against Bolsonaro's 42.1 per cent. In a simulated runoff, CNT/MDA gives Lula 47.3 per cent against 43.1 per cent for Flávio Bolsonaro — tighter than the 47.3 to 40 per cent lead in its previous survey. Other pollsters tell a similar story. BTG Pactual/Nexus, surveying 2,000 people from September 25 to 27, has Lula at 42 per cent and Bolsonaro at 37 per cent in the first round, and 46 to 44 per cent in a runoff — inside the two-point margin of error. Quaest, commissioned by Globo, found the runoff a statistical tie at 42 per cent each, with 19 per cent saying they would cast blank or null ballots or stay home. AtlasIntel, for Bloomberg, put Lula at 45.3 per cent and Bolsonaro at 42.2 per cent in the first round. Prediction markets tell a bolder story. On Polymarket, where more than $155 million has been traded on the contest, Lula is priced at a 75 per cent chance of winning the first round against 25 per cent for Flávio Bolsonaro — a far wider gap than any poll suggests. Lula, 80, is seeking a fourth non-consecutive term as president. The campaign's final week was clouded by a row over the judiciary's reach: Brazil's courts led broadcaster Globo to cancel the last scheduled television debate, a move media associations denounced as judicial abuse, according to Der Spiegel. For the Brazilian left, the numbers carry a warning that no first-round lead can soften: the Bolsonaro project — aligned with Donald Trump in Washington and openly hostile to democratic institutions — is within striking distance of the Planalto Palace barely four years after its last defeat. Sunday is only the opening act. The runoff on October 25 will decide whether Brazil's democracy consolidates its recovery or slides back toward the authoritarian right. The Justice will report the results as they come in.